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Stengefort vs Jeunesse Junglinster — Cup 2020

Stengefort
Stengefort
FT
1 – 3
Jeunesse Junglinster
Jeunesse Junglinster
10/18/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Demy Steichen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stengefort24%
×Draw18%
Jeunesse Junglinster57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stengefort
1.75
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.71

Jeunesse Junglinster creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stengefort
1.50
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.75

allows per match

Stengefort
2.67
Jeunesse Junglinster
2.00

finishing

Stengefort+0.00on par
Jeunesse Junglinster+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stengefort ↓

Jeunesse Junglinster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Stengefort or draw
43%
Stengefort or Jeunesse Junglinster
82%
Draw or Jeunesse Junglinster
76%

Winning margin

Stengefort wins by 2+
11%
Jeunesse Junglinster wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Stengefort 1+ goals
83%
Stengefort 2+ goals
52%
Stengefort 3+ goals
25%
Jeunesse Junglinster 1+ goals
93%
Jeunesse Junglinster 2+ goals
75%
Jeunesse Junglinster 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Stengefort (draw refunded)
30%
Jeunesse Junglinster (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stengefort at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Jeunesse Junglinster away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stengefort attack 1.50 + Jeunesse Junglinster defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jeunesse Junglinster attack 2.75 + Stengefort defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stengefort scores more
24%
level
18%
Jeunesse Junglinster scores more
57%

Jeunesse Junglinster at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jeunesse Junglinster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Stengefort 1–3 Jeunesse Junglinster

Jeunesse Junglinster beat Stengefort 3-1 in Cup on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Demy Steichen in Steinfort.