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Stellenbosch vs Maritzburg Utd — Premier Soccer League 2018

Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
4/27/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Danie Craven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Stellenbosch44%
×Draw31%
Maritzburg Utd25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stellenbosch
1.15
Maritzburg Utd
0.79

Stellenbosch creates 46% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 77 away

creates per match

Stellenbosch
1.13
Maritzburg Utd
0.64

allows per match

Stellenbosch
0.93
Maritzburg Utd
1.16

finishing

Stellenbosch+0.00on par
Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stellenbosch ↓

Maritzburg Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stellenbosch or draw
75%
Stellenbosch or Maritzburg Utd
69%
Draw or Maritzburg Utd
56%

Winning margin

Stellenbosch wins by 2+
19%
Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stellenbosch 1+ goals
68%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
32%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
11%
Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
55%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
19%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
64%
Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stellenbosch at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 104 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stellenbosch attack 1.13 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Stellenbosch defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stellenbosch scores more
44%
level
31%
Maritzburg Utd scores more
25%

Stellenbosch at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Stellenbosch 0–1 Maritzburg Utd

Maritzburg Utd beat Stellenbosch 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 27, 2021.

The match was played at Danie Craven Stadium in Stellenbosch.