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Stellenbosch vs Chippa United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chippa United
Chippa United
3/21/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Danie Craven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Stellenbosch44%
×Draw29%
Chippa United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stellenbosch
1.23
Chippa United
0.88

Stellenbosch creates 40% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

creates per match

Stellenbosch
1.13
Chippa United
0.82

allows per match

Stellenbosch
0.93
Chippa United
1.33

finishing

Stellenbosch+0.00on par
Chippa United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stellenbosch ↓

Chippa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stellenbosch or draw
74%
Stellenbosch or Chippa United
71%
Draw or Chippa United
56%

Winning margin

Stellenbosch wins by 2+
20%
Chippa United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stellenbosch 1+ goals
71%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
35%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
13%
Chippa United 1+ goals
59%
Chippa United 2+ goals
22%
Chippa United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
63%
Chippa United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stellenbosch at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 104 matches

Chippa United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stellenbosch attack 1.13 + Chippa United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chippa United attack 0.82 + Stellenbosch defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stellenbosch scores more
44%
level
29%
Chippa United scores more
26%

Stellenbosch at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stellenbosch vs Chippa United

Stellenbosch beat Chippa United 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Danie Craven Stadium in Stellenbosch.