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Stellenbosch vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
9/21/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stellenbosch50%
×Draw26%
Black Leopards23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stellenbosch
1.47
Black Leopards
0.90

Stellenbosch creates 63% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 47 away

creates per match

Stellenbosch
1.13
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Stellenbosch
0.93
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Stellenbosch+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stellenbosch ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stellenbosch or draw
77%
Stellenbosch or Black Leopards
74%
Draw or Black Leopards
50%

Winning margin

Stellenbosch wins by 2+
25%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stellenbosch 1+ goals
77%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
43%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
18%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
59%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
23%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
69%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stellenbosch at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 104 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stellenbosch attack 1.13 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Stellenbosch defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stellenbosch scores more
50%
level
26%
Black Leopards scores more
23%

Stellenbosch at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Stellenbosch 2–2 Black Leopards

Stellenbosch and Black Leopards drew 2-2 in Premier Soccer League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Cape Town Stadium in Cape Town.