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Stellenbosch vs Bidvest Wits — Premier Soccer League 2018

Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
1/4/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Stellenbosch31%
×Draw31%
Bidvest Wits38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stellenbosch
0.93
Bidvest Wits
1.05

Bidvest Wits creates 13% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 30 away

creates per match

Stellenbosch
1.13
Bidvest Wits
1.17

allows per match

Stellenbosch
0.93
Bidvest Wits
0.73

finishing

Stellenbosch+0.00on par
Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stellenbosch ↓

Bidvest Wits →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stellenbosch or draw
62%
Stellenbosch or Bidvest Wits
69%
Draw or Bidvest Wits
69%

Winning margin

Stellenbosch wins by 2+
11%
Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stellenbosch 1+ goals
61%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
24%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
7%
Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
65%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
28%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
45%
Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stellenbosch at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 104 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stellenbosch attack 1.13 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Stellenbosch defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stellenbosch scores more
31%
level
31%
Bidvest Wits scores more
38%

Bidvest Wits at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stellenbosch vs Bidvest Wits

Bidvest Wits beat Stellenbosch 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Cape Town Stadium in Cape Town.