Stella 3–1 Sporting Gagnoa: Result & Stats

Stella

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gagnoa

10/22/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stella38%

×Draw31%

Sporting Gagnoa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StellaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gagnoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.91

Stella

1.06

Sporting Gagnoa

0.91

Stella creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 59 away

1.04

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Stella

1.04

Sporting Gagnoa

0.92

allows per match

Stella

0.89

Sporting Gagnoa

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stella+0.00on par

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stella ↓

Sporting Gagnoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Stella or draw

69%

Stella or Sporting Gagnoa

69%

Draw or Sporting Gagnoa

62%

Winning margin

Stella wins by 2+

15%

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stella 1+ goals

65%

Stella 2+ goals

29%

Stella 3+ goals

9%

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals

60%

Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals

23%

Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Stella (draw refunded)

56%

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stella at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Sporting Gagnoa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stella attack 1.04 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sporting Gagnoa attack 0.92 + Stella defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stella scores more

38%

level

31%

Sporting Gagnoa scores more

31%

Stella at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff