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Stella vs SOA — Ligue 1 2019

Stella
Stella
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SOA
SOA
3/24/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Stella34%
×Draw31%
SOA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stella
1.00
SOA
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 93 away

creates per match

Stella
1.04
SOA
1.15

allows per match

Stella
0.89
SOA
0.97

finishing

Stella+0.00on par
SOA+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stella ↓

SOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stella or draw
65%
Stella or SOA
69%
Draw or SOA
66%

Winning margin

Stella wins by 2+
13%
SOA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stella 1+ goals
63%
Stella 2+ goals
26%
Stella 3+ goals
8%
SOA 1+ goals
64%
SOA 2+ goals
27%
SOA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stella (draw refunded)
49%
SOA (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stella at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

SOA away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stella attack 1.04 + SOA defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

SOA attack 1.15 + Stella defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Stella scores more
34%
level
31%
SOA scores more
35%

SOA at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "SOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Stella 1–2 SOA

SOA beat Stella 2-1 in Ligue 1 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.