Stella 1–1 Denguélé: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Stella

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Denguélé

12/31/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stella46%

×Draw29%

Denguélé25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StellaExpected goals in this matchDenguélé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.83

Stella

1.25

Denguélé

0.83

Stella creates 51% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 45 away

1.04

creates per match

0.78

0.89

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Stella

1.04

Denguélé

0.78

allows per match

Stella

0.89

Denguélé

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stella+0.00on par

Denguélé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stella ↓

Denguélé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Stella or draw

75%

Stella or Denguélé

71%

Draw or Denguélé

54%

Winning margin

Stella wins by 2+

21%

Denguélé wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stella 1+ goals

71%

Stella 2+ goals

36%

Stella 3+ goals

13%

Denguélé 1+ goals

56%

Denguélé 2+ goals

20%

Denguélé 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stella (draw refunded)

65%

Denguélé (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stella at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Denguélé away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stella attack 1.04 + Denguélé defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Denguélé attack 0.78 + Stella defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stella scores more

46%

level

29%

Denguélé scores more

25%

Stella at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff