Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stella vs Abengourou — Ligue 1 2019

Stella
Stella
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Abengourou
Abengourou
10/1/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Stella47%
×Draw29%
Abengourou23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stella
1.27
Abengourou
0.80

Stella creates 59% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 57 away

creates per match

Stella
1.04
Abengourou
0.72

allows per match

Stella
0.89
Abengourou
1.49

finishing

Stella+0.00on par
Abengourou+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stella ↓

Abengourou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stella or draw
77%
Stella or Abengourou
71%
Draw or Abengourou
53%

Winning margin

Stella wins by 2+
22%
Abengourou wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stella 1+ goals
72%
Stella 2+ goals
36%
Stella 3+ goals
14%
Abengourou 1+ goals
55%
Abengourou 2+ goals
19%
Abengourou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stella (draw refunded)
67%
Abengourou (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stella at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Abengourou away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stella attack 1.04 + Abengourou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Abengourou attack 0.72 + Stella defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stella scores more
47%
level
29%
Abengourou scores more
23%

Stella at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Stella 2–0 Abengourou

Stella beat Abengourou 2-0 in Ligue 1 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.