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Steinkjer vs Rana — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Steinkjer
Steinkjer
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Rana
Rana
9/3/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 19Guldbergaunet Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Steinkjer33%
×Draw21%
Rana46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Steinkjer
1.79
Rana
2.13

Rana creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Steinkjer
1.50
Rana
2.38

allows per match

Steinkjer
1.88
Rana
2.08

finishing

Steinkjer+0.00on par
Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steinkjer ↓

Rana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Steinkjer or draw
54%
Steinkjer or Rana
79%
Draw or Rana
67%

Winning margin

Steinkjer wins by 2+
17%
Rana wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Steinkjer 1+ goals
83%
Steinkjer 2+ goals
53%
Steinkjer 3+ goals
26%
Rana 1+ goals
88%
Rana 2+ goals
63%
Rana 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Steinkjer (draw refunded)
42%
Rana (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steinkjer at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Rana away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Rana defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rana attack 2.38 + Steinkjer defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Steinkjer scores more
33%
level
21%
Rana scores more
46%

Rana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Steinkjer vs Rana

Rana beat Steinkjer 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Guldbergaunet Stadion in Steinkjer.