Steinkjer 4–3 Orkla: Result & Stats

Steinkjer

FT

4 – 3

Orkla

4/15/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 2Guldbergaunet Tobb Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Steinkjer49%

×Draw21%

Orkla31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SteinkjerExpected goals in this matchOrkla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.68

Steinkjer

2.15

Orkla

1.68

Steinkjer creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

1.50

creates per match

1.48

1.88

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Steinkjer

1.50

Orkla

1.48

allows per match

Steinkjer

1.88

Orkla

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Steinkjer+0.00on par

Orkla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steinkjer ↓

Orkla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Steinkjer or draw

69%

Steinkjer or Orkla

79%

Draw or Orkla

51%

Winning margin

Steinkjer wins by 2+

28%

Orkla wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Steinkjer 1+ goals

88%

Steinkjer 2+ goals

63%

Steinkjer 3+ goals

36%

Orkla 1+ goals

81%

Orkla 2+ goals

50%

Orkla 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Steinkjer (draw refunded)

61%

Orkla (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steinkjer at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Orkla away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Orkla defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.15

Orkla attack 1.48 + Steinkjer defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Steinkjer scores more

49%

level

21%

Orkla scores more

31%

Steinkjer at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Steinkjer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff