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Steinkjer vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Steinkjer
Steinkjer
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
S. Sakshaug 82' (pen)
S. Grotan Kvistad 69'
M. Sorkilfla 50', 39'
A. Kjol 89', 66'
8/20/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 16Guldbergaunet Tobb Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Steinkjer45%
×Draw22%
Kristiansund II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Steinkjer
1.93
Kristiansund II
1.63

Steinkjer creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Steinkjer
1.50
Kristiansund II
1.38

allows per match

Steinkjer
1.88
Kristiansund II
2.35

finishing

Steinkjer+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steinkjer ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Steinkjer or draw
67%
Steinkjer or Kristiansund II
78%
Draw or Kristiansund II
55%

Winning margin

Steinkjer wins by 2+
25%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Steinkjer 1+ goals
85%
Steinkjer 2+ goals
57%
Steinkjer 3+ goals
30%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
80%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
48%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Steinkjer (draw refunded)
58%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steinkjer at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Steinkjer defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Steinkjer scores more
45%
level
22%
Kristiansund II scores more
33%

Steinkjer at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Steinkjer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
M. Sorkilfla
50'
M. Sorkilfla
66'
A. Kjol
69'
S. Grotan Kvistad
82'
S. SakshaugPenalty
89'
A. Kjol

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Steinkjer 4–2 Kristiansund II

Steinkjer beat Kristiansund II 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 20, 2023.

Goals: M. Sorkilfla (39', 50'), A. Kjol (66', 89'), S. Grotan Kvistad (69'), S. Sakshaug (82' pen).

The match was played at Guldbergaunet Tobb Arena in Steinkjer.