SteDoCo 1–0 Smitshoek: Result & Stats

SteDoCo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Smitshoek

10/26/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 11Sportpark Kort Scheiwijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SteDoCo55%

×Draw20%

Smitshoek25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SteDoCoExpected goals in this matchSmitshoek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.54

SteDoCo

2.35

Smitshoek

1.54

SteDoCo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.65

creates per match

1.76

1.31

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

SteDoCo

1.65

Smitshoek

1.76

allows per match

SteDoCo

1.31

Smitshoek

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SteDoCo+0.00on par

Smitshoek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SteDoCo ↓

Smitshoek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

SteDoCo or draw

75%

SteDoCo or Smitshoek

80%

Draw or Smitshoek

45%

Winning margin

SteDoCo wins by 2+

34%

Smitshoek wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SteDoCo 1+ goals

90%

SteDoCo 2+ goals

68%

SteDoCo 3+ goals

41%

Smitshoek 1+ goals

79%

Smitshoek 2+ goals

45%

Smitshoek 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SteDoCo (draw refunded)

69%

Smitshoek (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SteDoCo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Smitshoek away — creates 1.76, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SteDoCo attack 1.65 + Smitshoek defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.35

Smitshoek attack 1.76 + SteDoCo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SteDoCo scores more

55%

level

20%

Smitshoek scores more

25%

SteDoCo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SteDoCo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff