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SteDoCo vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

SteDoCo
SteDoCo
FT
1 – 1
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
2/15/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 22Sportpark SteDoCo Kunstgrasveld (Hoornaar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SteDoCo70%
×Draw16%
ONS Sneek13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SteDoCo
2.63
ONS Sneek
1.07

SteDoCo creates 146% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 12 away

creates per match

SteDoCo
1.60
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

SteDoCo
1.15
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

SteDoCo+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SteDoCo ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SteDoCo or draw
87%
SteDoCo or ONS Sneek
84%
Draw or ONS Sneek
30%

Winning margin

SteDoCo wins by 2+
49%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SteDoCo 1+ goals
93%
SteDoCo 2+ goals
73%
SteDoCo 3+ goals
48%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
66%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
29%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SteDoCo (draw refunded)
84%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SteDoCo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SteDoCo attack 1.60 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + SteDoCo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

SteDoCo scores more
70%
level
16%
ONS Sneek scores more
13%

SteDoCo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "SteDoCo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SteDoCo vs ONS Sneek

SteDoCo and ONS Sneek drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark SteDoCo Kunstgrasveld (Hoornaar).