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SteDoCo vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

SteDoCo
SteDoCo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
4/25/2026Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 31Sportpark Kort Scheiwijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SteDoCo52%
×Draw24%
Groene Ster25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SteDoCo
1.74
Groene Ster
1.13

SteDoCo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

SteDoCo
1.65
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

SteDoCo
1.31
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

SteDoCo+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SteDoCo ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SteDoCo or draw
75%
SteDoCo or Groene Ster
76%
Draw or Groene Ster
48%

Winning margin

SteDoCo wins by 2+
28%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SteDoCo 1+ goals
82%
SteDoCo 2+ goals
52%
SteDoCo 3+ goals
25%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
68%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
31%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SteDoCo (draw refunded)
68%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SteDoCo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SteDoCo attack 1.65 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.74

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + SteDoCo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SteDoCo scores more
52%
level
24%
Groene Ster scores more
25%

SteDoCo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SteDoCo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: SteDoCo 3–0 Groene Ster

SteDoCo beat Groene Ster 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark Kort Scheiwijk in Hoornaar.