SteDoCo 0–2 Barendrecht: Result & Stats

SteDoCo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Barendrecht

9/16/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 5Sportpark SteDoCo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SteDoCo33%

×Draw24%

Barendrecht43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SteDoCoExpected goals in this matchBarendrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.66

SteDoCo

1.44

Barendrecht

1.66

Barendrecht creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.65

creates per match

2.00

1.31

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

SteDoCo

1.65

Barendrecht

2.00

allows per match

SteDoCo

1.31

Barendrecht

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SteDoCo+0.00on par

Barendrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SteDoCo ↓

Barendrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SteDoCo or draw

57%

SteDoCo or Barendrecht

76%

Draw or Barendrecht

67%

Winning margin

SteDoCo wins by 2+

15%

Barendrecht wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

SteDoCo 1+ goals

76%

SteDoCo 2+ goals

42%

SteDoCo 3+ goals

18%

Barendrecht 1+ goals

81%

Barendrecht 2+ goals

49%

Barendrecht 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

SteDoCo (draw refunded)

44%

Barendrecht (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SteDoCo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Barendrecht away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SteDoCo attack 1.65 + Barendrecht defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Barendrecht attack 2.00 + SteDoCo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SteDoCo scores more

33%

level

24%

Barendrecht scores more

43%

Barendrecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff