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SteDoCo vs AWC — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

SteDoCo
SteDoCo
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
AWC
AWC
5/18/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 33Sportpark Kort Scheiwijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SteDoCo58%
×Draw22%
AWC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SteDoCo
1.95
AWC
1.04

SteDoCo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

SteDoCo
1.65
AWC
0.76

allows per match

SteDoCo
1.31
AWC
2.24

finishing

SteDoCo+0.00on par
AWC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SteDoCo ↓

AWC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SteDoCo or draw
80%
SteDoCo or AWC
78%
Draw or AWC
42%

Winning margin

SteDoCo wins by 2+
35%
AWC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SteDoCo 1+ goals
86%
SteDoCo 2+ goals
58%
SteDoCo 3+ goals
31%
AWC 1+ goals
65%
AWC 2+ goals
28%
AWC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SteDoCo (draw refunded)
75%
AWC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SteDoCo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

AWC away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SteDoCo attack 1.65 + AWC defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.95

AWC attack 0.76 + SteDoCo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SteDoCo scores more
58%
level
22%
AWC scores more
20%

SteDoCo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SteDoCo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SteDoCo vs AWC

SteDoCo and AWC drew 3-3 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Kort Scheiwijk in Hoornaar.