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StavAgrosoyuz vs Mashuk-KMV — Cup 2019

StavAgrosoyuz
StavAgrosoyuz
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
M. Magomedov 78'
R. Gusengadzhiev 64'
C. Agabalaev 18'
8/2/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

StavAgrosoyuz14%
×Draw17%
Mashuk-KMV69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

StavAgrosoyuz
1.13
Mashuk-KMV
2.63

Mashuk-KMV creates 133% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

StavAgrosoyuz
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
2.00

allows per match

StavAgrosoyuz
3.25
Mashuk-KMV
0.75

finishing

StavAgrosoyuz+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StavAgrosoyuz ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

StavAgrosoyuz or draw
31%
StavAgrosoyuz or Mashuk-KMV
83%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
86%

Winning margin

StavAgrosoyuz wins by 2+
5%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

StavAgrosoyuz 1+ goals
68%
StavAgrosoyuz 2+ goals
31%
StavAgrosoyuz 3+ goals
11%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
93%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
73%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

StavAgrosoyuz (draw refunded)
17%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

StavAgrosoyuz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

StavAgrosoyuz attack 1.50 + Mashuk-KMV defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Mashuk-KMV attack 2.00 + StavAgrosoyuz defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

StavAgrosoyuz scores more
14%
level
17%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
69%

Mashuk-KMV at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
C. Agabalaev
64'
R. Gusengadzhiev
78'
M. Magomedov
86'
A. Tabishev
86'
A. Tabishev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: StavAgrosoyuz vs Mashuk-KMV

Mashuk-KMV beat StavAgrosoyuz 3-0 in Cup on August 2, 2023.

Goals: C. Agabalaev (18'), R. Gusengadzhiev (64'), M. Magomedov (78').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.