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StavAgrosoyuz vs Legion Dynamo — Cup 2019

StavAgrosoyuz
StavAgrosoyuz
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
8/31/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

StavAgrosoyuz42%
×Draw20%
Legion Dynamo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

StavAgrosoyuz
2.33
Legion Dynamo
2.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

StavAgrosoyuz
1.50
Legion Dynamo
1.17

allows per match

StavAgrosoyuz
3.25
Legion Dynamo
3.17

finishing

StavAgrosoyuz+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StavAgrosoyuz ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

StavAgrosoyuz or draw
62%
StavAgrosoyuz or Legion Dynamo
80%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
58%

Winning margin

StavAgrosoyuz wins by 2+
25%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

StavAgrosoyuz 1+ goals
90%
StavAgrosoyuz 2+ goals
67%
StavAgrosoyuz 3+ goals
41%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
89%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
65%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

StavAgrosoyuz (draw refunded)
53%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

StavAgrosoyuz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

StavAgrosoyuz attack 1.50 + Legion Dynamo defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Legion Dynamo attack 1.17 + StavAgrosoyuz defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

StavAgrosoyuz scores more
42%
level
20%
Legion Dynamo scores more
38%

StavAgrosoyuz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "StavAgrosoyuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: StavAgrosoyuz 4–3 Legion Dynamo

StavAgrosoyuz beat Legion Dynamo 4-3 in Cup on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.