StavAgrosoyuz 0–3 FK Neftekhimik: Result & Stats

StavAgrosoyuz

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FK Neftekhimik

10/4/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

StavAgrosoyuz17%

×Draw19%

FK Neftekhimik65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StavAgrosoyuzExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.38

StavAgrosoyuz

1.13

FK Neftekhimik

2.38

FK Neftekhimik creates 111% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.50

3.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

StavAgrosoyuz

1.50

FK Neftekhimik

1.50

allows per match

StavAgrosoyuz

3.25

FK Neftekhimik

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

StavAgrosoyuz+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StavAgrosoyuz ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

StavAgrosoyuz or draw

35%

StavAgrosoyuz or FK Neftekhimik

81%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

83%

Winning margin

StavAgrosoyuz wins by 2+

6%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

StavAgrosoyuz 1+ goals

68%

StavAgrosoyuz 2+ goals

31%

StavAgrosoyuz 3+ goals

11%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

91%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

68%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

StavAgrosoyuz (draw refunded)

21%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

StavAgrosoyuz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

StavAgrosoyuz attack 1.50 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.50 + StavAgrosoyuz defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

StavAgrosoyuz scores more

17%

level

19%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

65%

FK Neftekhimik at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff