StavAgrosoyuz 2–4 Dinamo Stavropol: Result & Stats

StavAgrosoyuz

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Dinamo Stavropol

V. Kablakhov 52'

V. Saverskiy 28'

S. Garanzha 90'

Z. Maysultanov 71', 35'

G. Kuchiev 33'

7/18/2021

Cup · 1st RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

StavAgrosoyuz24%

×Draw18%

Dinamo Stavropol57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StavAgrosoyuzExpected goals in this matchDinamo Stavropol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.70

StavAgrosoyuz

1.75

Dinamo Stavropol

2.70

Dinamo Stavropol creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

2.14

3.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

StavAgrosoyuz

1.50

Dinamo Stavropol

2.14

allows per match

StavAgrosoyuz

3.25

Dinamo Stavropol

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

StavAgrosoyuz+0.00on par

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StavAgrosoyuz ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

StavAgrosoyuz or draw

43%

StavAgrosoyuz or Dinamo Stavropol

82%

Draw or Dinamo Stavropol

76%

Winning margin

StavAgrosoyuz wins by 2+

12%

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

StavAgrosoyuz 1+ goals

83%

StavAgrosoyuz 2+ goals

52%

StavAgrosoyuz 3+ goals

25%

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

93%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

75%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

StavAgrosoyuz (draw refunded)

30%

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

StavAgrosoyuz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

StavAgrosoyuz attack 1.50 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dinamo Stavropol attack 2.14 + StavAgrosoyuz defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

StavAgrosoyuz scores more

24%

level

18%

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

57%

Dinamo Stavropol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

V. Saverskiy

33'

G. Kuchiev

35'

Z. Maysultanov

46'

K. Nakhushev← V. Saverskiy

52'

V. Kablakhov

57'

I. Krutov← D. Daliev

59'

A. Sorokin← Azamat Kurachinov

71'

Z. Maysultanov

72'

N. Fedorov← D. Tigiev

72'

A. Tabishev← A. Zarochentsev

75'

K. Kolesnikov← G. Kuchiev

90'

Albert Kurachinov← S. Garanzha

90'

S. Yartsev← Z. Maysultanov

90'

S. Garanzha

StavAgrosoyuz

Dinamo

⚽

▼

Garanzha

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: K. Eydelnant

46'▲K. Nakhushev←▼V. Saverskiy

72'▲N. Fedorov←▼D. Tigiev

72'▲A. Tabishev←▼A. Zarochentsev

StavAgrosoyuz substitutes

NakhushevFedorovTabishev

Manager: P. Berishvili

57'▲I. Krutov←▼D. Daliev

59'▲A. Sorokin←▼Azamat Kurachinov

75'▲K. Kolesnikov←▼G. Kuchiev

90'▲Albert Kurachinov←▼S. Garanzha

90'▲S. Yartsev←▼Z. Maysultanov

Dinamo Stavropol substitutes

KrutovSorokinKolesnikovKurachinovYartsev

Cup: StavAgrosoyuz 2–4 Dinamo Stavropol

Dinamo Stavropol beat StavAgrosoyuz 4-2 in Cup on July 18, 2021.

Goals: V. Saverskiy (28'), G. Kuchiev (33'), Z. Maysultanov (35', 71'), V. Kablakhov (52'), S. Garanzha (90').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.

StavAgrosoyuz vs Dinamo Stavropol — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: StavAgrosoyuz 2–4 Dinamo Stavropol