StaSi 0–6 Polin Pallo: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

StaSi

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Polin Pallo

2/15/2025

Suomen Cup · Preliminary RoundTöölö PK 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

StaSi0%

×Draw2%

Polin Pallo98%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StaSiExpected goals in this matchPolin Pallo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.46

6.17

StaSi

0.46

Polin Pallo

6.17

Polin Pallo creates 1241% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

4.00

8.33

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

StaSi

0.67

Polin Pallo

4.00

allows per match

StaSi

8.33

Polin Pallo

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

StaSi+0.00on par

Polin Pallo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StaSi ↓

Polin Pallo →

0–00%

0–11%

0–24%

0–39%

0–414%

1–00%

1–11%

1–22%

1–34%

1–46%

2–00%

2–10%

2–20%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 45% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

StaSi or draw

StaSi or Polin Pallo

98%

Draw or Polin Pallo

100%

Winning margin

StaSi wins by 2+

Polin Pallo wins by 2+

93%

Team goals

StaSi 1+ goals

37%

StaSi 2+ goals

StaSi 3+ goals

Polin Pallo 1+ goals

100%

Polin Pallo 2+ goals

97%

Polin Pallo 3+ goals

91%

Draw no bet

StaSi (draw refunded)

Polin Pallo (draw refunded)

100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

StaSi at home — creates 0.67, concedes 8.33 · 3 matches

Polin Pallo away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

StaSi attack 0.67 + Polin Pallo defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.46

Polin Pallo attack 4.00 + StaSi defence 8.33 → ÷2 → 6.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 98%?"

StaSi scores more

level

Polin Pallo scores more

98%

Polin Pallo at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Polin Pallo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff