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StaSi vs EPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

StaSi
StaSi
FT
0 – 15
EPS II
EPS II
2/18/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKartano 2 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

StaSi1%
×Draw3%
EPS II96%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

StaSi
0.94
EPS II
6.67

EPS II creates 610% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

StaSi
0.67
EPS II
5.00

allows per match

StaSi
8.33
EPS II
1.20

finishing

StaSi+0.00on par
EPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

StaSi ↓

EPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–35%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–35%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–32%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 41% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
89%11%4.5
75%25%

Double chance

StaSi or draw
4%
StaSi or EPS II
97%
Draw or EPS II
99%

Winning margin

StaSi wins by 2+
0%
EPS II wins by 2+
90%

Team goals

StaSi 1+ goals
61%
StaSi 2+ goals
24%
StaSi 3+ goals
7%
EPS II 1+ goals
100%
EPS II 2+ goals
98%
EPS II 3+ goals
92%

Draw no bet

StaSi (draw refunded)
1%
EPS II (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

StaSi at home — creates 0.67, concedes 8.33 · 3 matches

EPS II away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

StaSi attack 0.67 + EPS II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

EPS II attack 5.00 + StaSi defence 8.33 → ÷2 → 6.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

StaSi scores more
1%
level
3%
EPS II scores more
96%

EPS II at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "EPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: StaSi vs EPS II

EPS II beat StaSi 15-0 in Suomen Cup on February 18, 2022.

The match was played at Kartano 2 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.