Start W 2–2 Fortuna Ålesund W: Result & Stats

Start W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fortuna Ålesund W

T. Toft 90+3'

K. Clement 70'

K. Sunde 83', 45'

8/3/2025

1. Division Women · Round 12Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Start W38%

×Draw25%

Fortuna Ålesund W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Start WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Ålesund W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.40

Start W

1.42

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

1.59

creates per match

1.67

1.12

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Start W

1.59

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.67

allows per match

Start W

1.12

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start W+0.00on par

Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Start W or draw

63%

Start W or Fortuna Ålesund W

75%

Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W

62%

Winning margin

Start W wins by 2+

18%

Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Start W 1+ goals

76%

Start W 2+ goals

41%

Start W 3+ goals

17%

Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals

75%

Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals

41%

Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Start W (draw refunded)

51%

Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start W attack 1.59 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 1.67 + Start W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Start W scores more

38%

level

25%

Fortuna Ålesund W scores more

37%

Start W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Start W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

K. Sunde

52'

M. Myrvold← M. Myrvold

59'

M. Eid

61'

M. Eid← M. Eid

70'

K. Clement

71'

S. Senior-Harvik← S. Senior-Harvik

72'

J. Kvamso← J. Kvamso

83'

K. Sunde

86'

K. Clement← K. Clement

86'

I. Jastad← I. Jastad

90+3'

T. Toft

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff