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Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Start
Start
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
M. Bringaker 88'
10/7/2018EliteserienEliteserien · Round 25Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start36%
×Draw24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

creates per match

Start
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.81

allows per match

Start
1.42
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.66

finishing

Start-0.33scores less
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.14scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Start or draw
60%
Start or Sarpsborg 08 FF
76%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
64%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
17%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
78%
Start 2+ goals
44%
Start 3+ goals
19%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
80%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
48%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
47%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.66 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.81 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Start scores more
36%
level
24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
40%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
D. LoweStartStart · D
8.3

Match Events

4'
Mikkel Agger
53'
Kristoffer Zachariassen
63'
M. Bringaker← A. Akinyemi
71'
H. Singh← M. Lund Nielsen
72'
Afeez Aremu Olalekan
80'
K. Larsen← M. Agger
81'
N. Sandberg← T. Christensen
88'
Aleksander Vasyutin
88'
M. Bringaker
90+2'
A. Hadzic← H. Shala
90'
J. Larsen← T. Heintz

Possession

54%Start

Shots

16Start

Pass accuracy

53%Start

Statistics

StartSarpsborg
Overview
54%Possession46%
16Total Shots17
5Corners3
12Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots17
5On Target0
6Off Target12
5Blocked5
10Inside Box9
6Outside Box8
Passing
54%Possession46%
394Total Passes329
276Accurate Passes208
70%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Eliteserien: Start 1–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF

Start beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 in Eliteserien on October 7, 2018.

Goals: M. Bringaker (88').

Start controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 17.

The match was played at Sør Arena in Kristiansand.