Start 1–1 Levanger: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Start

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Levanger

S. Sjøkvist 72'

S. Sundnes 82'

9/16/2024

1. Division · Round 22Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Start56%

×Draw21%

Levanger23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchLevanger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.30

Start

2.13

Levanger

1.30

Start creates 64% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 30 away

2.00

creates per match

1.17

1.44

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Start

2.00

Levanger

1.17

allows per match

Start

1.44

Levanger

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start+0.00on par

Levanger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Levanger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Start or draw

77%

Start or Levanger

79%

Draw or Levanger

44%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

34%

Levanger wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

88%

Start 2+ goals

63%

Start 3+ goals

35%

Levanger 1+ goals

73%

Levanger 2+ goals

37%

Levanger 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

71%

Levanger (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Levanger away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 2.00 + Levanger defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.13

Levanger attack 1.17 + Start defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Start scores more

56%

level

21%

Levanger scores more

23%

Start at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

S. Sundnes← Å. Bruseth

66'

S. Hanssen← D. Pollen

66'

N. Hristov← H. Stakset

69'

S. Sjøkvist← F. Pålerud

72'

S. Sjøkvist

82'

S. Sundnes

88'

K. Hoven← M. Grundetjern

Start

Levanger

12

5

10

6

19

8

2

▼

Pollen

7

Hajdari

17

▼

Bruseth

14

Gunnes

21

▼

Stakset

45

Pryts

2

▼

27

5

4

13

11

29

8

▼

Grundetje

16

Strannegå

23

Ubandoma

Manager: A. Karadas

69'▲S. Sjøkvist←▼F. Pålerud

88'▲K. Hoven←▼M. Grundetjern

Start substitutes

21Sjøkvist9Hoven1Torkildsen6Makosso7Grønli19Dasjajev20Lorentzen24Gravdahl44Nkubiri

Manager: P. Rønning

66'▲S. Sundnes←▼Å. Bruseth

66'▲S. Hanssen←▼D. Pollen

66'▲N. Hristov←▼H. Stakset

Levanger substitutes

32Sundnes15Hanssen31Hristov18Ulstad20Wenneberg25Alemseged

Match Recap: Start vs Levanger

Start and Levanger drew 1-1 in 1. Division on September 16, 2024.

Goals: S. Sjøkvist (72'), S. Sundnes (82').

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Levanger — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Start vs Levanger