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Start vs Kristiansund BK — 1. Division 2018

Start
Start
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
4/16/20231. Division1. Division · Round 2Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Start41%
×Draw23%
Kristiansund BK37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.73
Kristiansund BK
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Start
2.00
Kristiansund BK
1.82

allows per match

Start
1.44
Kristiansund BK
1.47

finishing

Start+0.00on par
Kristiansund BK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Kristiansund BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Start or draw
63%
Start or Kristiansund BK
77%
Draw or Kristiansund BK
59%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
21%
Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
82%
Start 2+ goals
52%
Start 3+ goals
25%
Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
80%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
48%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
53%
Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 2.00 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kristiansund BK attack 1.82 + Start defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Start scores more
41%
level
23%
Kristiansund BK scores more
37%

Start at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start vs Kristiansund BK

Start beat Kristiansund BK 4-0 in 1. Division on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.