Start 2–4 jerv: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Start

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

jerv

M. Ramsland 31', 8'

A. Latifu 58'

E. Sandberg 52'

D. Campos 35', 12' (pen)

5/19/2021

1. Division · Round 2Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Start52%

×Draw22%

jerv26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchjerv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.36

Start

2.01

jerv

1.36

Start creates 48% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 58 away

2.00

creates per match

1.28

1.44

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Start

2.00

jerv

1.28

allows per match

Start

1.44

jerv

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start+0.00on par

jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

jerv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Start or draw

74%

Start or jerv

78%

Draw or jerv

48%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

30%

jerv wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

87%

Start 2+ goals

59%

Start 3+ goals

32%

jerv 1+ goals

74%

jerv 2+ goals

39%

jerv 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

67%

jerv (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

jerv away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.03 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 2.00 + jerv defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.01

jerv attack 1.28 + Start defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Start scores more

52%

level

22%

jerv scores more

26%

Start at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Ramsland

12'

M. Ramsland

12'

D. CamposPenalty

30'

31'

35'

52'

58'

66'

H. Robstad← M. Ugland

66'

E. Pedersen← M. Moldskred

69'

J. Solli← A. Konte

70'

W. Furtado

72'

O. Håbestad← Pibe

82'

S. Sjøkvist← P. Reinhardsen

86'

H. Suggelia← Willis Furtado

87'

V. Bergan

90+3'

H. Robstad

Start

jerv

20

Øvretveit

15

⚽

Latifu

19

Mafi

16

Norheim

5

⚽

Sandberg

2

Wichne

10

Kok

7

▼

Furtado

9

⚽2

Campos

27

▼

Konte

39

▼

1

6

3

22

5

▼

4

11

10

16

▼

Ugland

7

▼

Moldskred

9

⚽2

Ramsland

Manager: J. Hardarson

66'▲H. Robstad←▼M. Ugland

66'▲E. Pedersen←▼M. Moldskred

82'▲S. Sjøkvist←▼P. Reinhardsen

Start substitutes

15Robstad19Pedersen21Sjøkvist12Wichne17Akinyemi30Ugland31Ujkani58Hille64Eftevaag

Manager: A. Sandstø

69'▲J. Solli←▼A. Konte

72'▲O. Håbestad←▼Pibe

86'▲H. Suggelia←▼Willis Furtado

jerv substitutes

18Solli23Håbestad13Suggelia3Hove8Zernichow28Myhre30Olsvoll32Ness

1. Division: Start 2–4 jerv

jerv beat Start 4-2 in 1. Division on May 19, 2021.

Goals: M. Ramsland (8', 31'), D. Campos (12' pen, 35'), E. Sandberg (52'), A. Latifu (58').

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs jerv — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Start 2–4 jerv