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Start vs hodd — 1. Division 2018

Start
Start
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
hodd
hodd
5/7/20231. Division1. Division · Round 6Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Start52%
×Draw23%
hodd25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.82
hodd
1.18

Start creates 54% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 38 away

creates per match

Start
2.02
hodd
0.97

allows per match

Start
1.39
hodd
1.63

finishing

Start+0.00on par
hodd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

hodd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Start or draw
75%
Start or hodd
77%
Draw or hodd
48%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
29%
hodd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
84%
Start 2+ goals
54%
Start 3+ goals
27%
hodd 1+ goals
69%
hodd 2+ goals
33%
hodd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
68%
hodd (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

hodd away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 2.02 + hodd defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.82

hodd attack 0.97 + Start defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Start scores more
52%
level
23%
hodd scores more
25%

Start at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start vs hodd

Start beat hodd 4-2 in 1. Division on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.