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Start U19 vs Odd U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Start U19
Start U19
FT
4 – 7
Odd U19
Odd U19
3/3/2023Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 3Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Start U1924%
×Draw17%
Odd U1960%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start U19
2.13
Odd U19
3.32

Odd U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Start U19
1.84
Odd U19
3.06

allows per match

Start U19
3.58
Odd U19
2.41

finishing

Start U19+0.00on par
Odd U19+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start U19 ↓

Odd U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Start U19 or draw
40%
Start U19 or Odd U19
83%
Draw or Odd U19
76%

Winning margin

Start U19 wins by 2+
12%
Odd U19 wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Start U19 1+ goals
88%
Start U19 2+ goals
63%
Start U19 3+ goals
35%
Odd U19 1+ goals
96%
Odd U19 2+ goals
84%
Odd U19 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Start U19 (draw refunded)
29%
Odd U19 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start U19 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 3.58 · 19 matches

Odd U19 away — creates 3.06, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start U19 attack 1.84 + Odd U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.13

Odd U19 attack 3.06 + Start U19 defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Start U19 scores more
24%
level
17%
Odd U19 scores more
60%

Odd U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Odd U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start U19 vs Odd U19

Odd U19 beat Start U19 7-4 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.