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Start II vs Vindbjart — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Start II
Start II
FT
3 – 2
Vindbjart
Vindbjart
9/16/20213. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 7Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Start II51%
×Draw21%
Vindbjart28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start II
2.15
Vindbjart
1.57

Start II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Start II
2.00
Vindbjart
2.00

allows per match

Start II
1.14
Vindbjart
2.29

finishing

Start II+0.00on par
Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Vindbjart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Start II or draw
72%
Start II or Vindbjart
79%
Draw or Vindbjart
49%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+
30%
Vindbjart wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals
88%
Start II 2+ goals
63%
Start II 3+ goals
36%
Vindbjart 1+ goals
79%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
46%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)
64%
Vindbjart (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 2.00 + Vindbjart defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vindbjart attack 2.00 + Start II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Start II scores more
51%
level
21%
Vindbjart scores more
28%

Start II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start II vs Vindbjart

Start II beat Vindbjart 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 16, 2021.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.