Start II 4–0 Mjøndalen II: Result & Stats

Start II

FT

4 – 0

Mjøndalen II

5/8/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 5Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Start II63%

×Draw18%

Mjøndalen II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Start IIExpected goals in this matchMjøndalen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.31

Start II

2.50

Mjøndalen II

1.31

Start II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

2.23

creates per match

1.08

1.54

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Start II

2.23

Mjøndalen II

1.08

allows per match

Start II

1.54

Mjøndalen II

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start II+0.00on par

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Mjøndalen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Start II or draw

81%

Start II or Mjøndalen II

82%

Draw or Mjøndalen II

37%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+

41%

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals

92%

Start II 2+ goals

71%

Start II 3+ goals

45%

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

73%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

38%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)

77%

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 2.23 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.50

Mjøndalen II attack 1.08 + Start II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Start II scores more

63%

level

18%

Mjøndalen II scores more

19%

Start II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff