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Start II vs Eik-Tønsberg — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Start II
Start II
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 5
Eik-Tønsberg
Eik-Tønsberg
8/6/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 14Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Start II30%
×Draw21%
Eik-Tønsberg48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start II
1.59
Eik-Tønsberg
2.04

Eik-Tønsberg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Start II
2.23
Eik-Tønsberg
2.54

allows per match

Start II
1.54
Eik-Tønsberg
0.96

finishing

Start II+0.00on par
Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Eik-Tønsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Start II or draw
52%
Start II or Eik-Tønsberg
79%
Draw or Eik-Tønsberg
70%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+
14%
Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals
80%
Start II 2+ goals
47%
Start II 3+ goals
21%
Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals
87%
Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals
60%
Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)
39%
Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Eik-Tønsberg away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 2.23 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.59

Eik-Tønsberg attack 2.54 + Start II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Start II scores more
30%
level
21%
Eik-Tønsberg scores more
48%

Eik-Tønsberg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eik-Tønsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start II vs Eik-Tønsberg

Eik-Tønsberg beat Start II 6-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.