Starowice Dolne 0–4 Śląsk Wrocław II

Starowice Dolne

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Śląsk Wrocław II

8/26/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Starowice Dolne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Starowice Dolne15%

×Draw19%

Śląsk Wrocław II66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Starowice DolneExpected goals in this matchŚląsk Wrocław II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

2.27

Starowice Dolne

0.98

Śląsk Wrocław II

2.27

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 132% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.03

creates per match

2.12

2.42

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Starowice Dolne

1.03

Śląsk Wrocław II

2.12

allows per match

Starowice Dolne

2.42

Śląsk Wrocław II

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starowice Dolne ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Starowice Dolne or draw

34%

Starowice Dolne or Śląsk Wrocław II

81%

Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II

85%

Winning margin

Starowice Dolne wins by 2+

5%

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Starowice Dolne 1+ goals

62%

Starowice Dolne 2+ goals

26%

Starowice Dolne 3+ goals

8%

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals

90%

Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals

66%

Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)

19%

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starowice Dolne at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starowice Dolne attack 1.03 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.12 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Starowice Dolne scores more

15%

level

19%

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more

66%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff