Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Starowice Dolne vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
FT
1 – 2
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Starowice Dolne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Starowice Dolne22%
×Draw22%
Górnik Polkowice56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starowice Dolne
1.18
Górnik Polkowice
1.98

Górnik Polkowice creates 68% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Starowice Dolne
1.03
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Starowice Dolne
2.42
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Starowice Dolne+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starowice Dolne ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Starowice Dolne or draw
44%
Starowice Dolne or Górnik Polkowice
78%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
78%

Winning margin

Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
9%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
69%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
33%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
12%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
86%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
59%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
29%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starowice Dolne at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starowice Dolne attack 1.03 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Starowice Dolne scores more
22%
level
22%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
56%

Górnik Polkowice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Starowice Dolne vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Starowice Dolne 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Starowice Dolne in Gmina Grodków.