Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Starogard Gdański vs Wikielec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Wikielec
Wikielec
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Starogard Gdański18%
×Draw17%
Wikielec65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.41
Wikielec
2.74

Wikielec creates 94% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
0.67
Wikielec
2.14

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
3.33
Wikielec
2.14

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Wikielec+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Wikielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
35%
Starogard Gdański or Wikielec
83%
Draw or Wikielec
82%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
7%
Wikielec wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
76%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
41%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
17%
Wikielec 1+ goals
93%
Wikielec 2+ goals
75%
Wikielec 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
22%
Wikielec (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Wikielec away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 0.67 + Wikielec defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wikielec attack 2.14 + Starogard Gdański defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
18%
level
17%
Wikielec scores more
65%

Wikielec at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Starogard Gdański vs Wikielec

Wikielec beat Starogard Gdański 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.