Starogard Gdański 1–0 Pomorzanin Toruń

Starogard Gdański

FT

1 – 0

Pomorzanin Toruń

11/28/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Starogard Gdański34%

×Draw25%

Pomorzanin Toruń42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Starogard GdańskiExpected goals in this matchPomorzanin Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.54

Starogard Gdański

1.36

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.54

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

1.18

1.90

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Starogard Gdański

1.26

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.18

allows per match

Starogard Gdański

1.90

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw

58%

Starogard Gdański or Pomorzanin Toruń

75%

Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń

66%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+

15%

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals

74%

Starogard Gdański 2+ goals

39%

Starogard Gdański 3+ goals

16%

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

79%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

45%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)

45%

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more

34%

level

25%

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

42%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff