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Starogard Gdański vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
3 – 0
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
8/15/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Starogard Gdański42%
×Draw25%
Górnik Konin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.54
Górnik Konin
1.36

Starogard Gdański creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
1.26
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
1.90
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
66%
Starogard Gdański or Górnik Konin
75%
Draw or Górnik Konin
58%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
21%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
79%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
45%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
20%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
39%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
55%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
42%
level
25%
Górnik Konin scores more
34%

Starogard Gdański at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Starogard Gdański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Starogard Gdański vs Górnik Konin

Starogard Gdański beat Górnik Konin 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny in Starogard Gdański.