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Starogard Gdański vs Flota Świnoujście — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Starogard Gdański33%
×Draw24%
Flota Świnoujście43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.41
Flota Świnoujście
1.64

Flota Świnoujście creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
1.26
Flota Świnoujście
1.38

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
1.90
Flota Świnoujście
1.56

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Flota Świnoujście →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
57%
Starogard Gdański or Flota Świnoujście
76%
Draw or Flota Świnoujście
67%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
15%
Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
76%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
41%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
17%
Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
81%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
49%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
43%
Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
33%
level
24%
Flota Świnoujście scores more
43%

Flota Świnoujście at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Starogard Gdański 1–3 Flota Świnoujście

Flota Świnoujście beat Starogard Gdański 3-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny in Starogard Gdański.