Starogard Gdański 2–0 Chemik Police: Result & Stats

Starogard Gdański

FT

2 – 0

Chemik Police

8/29/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Starogard Gdański54%

×Draw21%

Chemik Police25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Starogard GdańskiExpected goals in this matchChemik Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.39

Starogard Gdański

2.13

Chemik Police

1.39

Starogard Gdański creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

0.88

1.90

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Starogard Gdański

1.26

Chemik Police

0.88

allows per match

Starogard Gdański

1.90

Chemik Police

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Chemik Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw

75%

Starogard Gdański or Chemik Police

79%

Draw or Chemik Police

46%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+

32%

Chemik Police wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals

88%

Starogard Gdański 2+ goals

63%

Starogard Gdański 3+ goals

35%

Chemik Police 1+ goals

75%

Chemik Police 2+ goals

40%

Chemik Police 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)

69%

Chemik Police (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more

54%

level

21%

Chemik Police scores more

25%

Starogard Gdański at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Starogard Gdański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff