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Starogard Gdański vs Cartusia Kartuzy — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
1 – 1
Cartusia Kartuzy
Cartusia Kartuzy
2/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Starogard Gdański33%
×Draw22%
Cartusia Kartuzy46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.67
Cartusia Kartuzy
2.00

Cartusia Kartuzy creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
0.67
Cartusia Kartuzy
0.67

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
3.33
Cartusia Kartuzy
2.67

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Cartusia Kartuzy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
54%
Starogard Gdański or Cartusia Kartuzy
78%
Draw or Cartusia Kartuzy
67%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
16%
Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
81%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
50%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
23%
Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals
86%
Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals
59%
Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
42%
Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Cartusia Kartuzy away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 0.67 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 0.67 + Starogard Gdański defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
33%
level
22%
Cartusia Kartuzy scores more
46%

Cartusia Kartuzy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cartusia Kartuzy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Starogard Gdański 1–1 Cartusia Kartuzy

Starogard Gdański and Cartusia Kartuzy drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 21, 2026.