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Stari Grad vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Stari Grad
Stari Grad
FT
0 – 1
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
4/3/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stari Grad43%
×Draw23%
Tisa Adorjan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stari Grad
1.69
Tisa Adorjan
1.48

Stari Grad creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 64 away

creates per match

Stari Grad
1.74
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Stari Grad
1.38
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw
66%
Stari Grad or Tisa Adorjan
77%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
57%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+
22%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals
82%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
50%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
24%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
77%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
43%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)
56%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stari Grad scores more
43%
level
23%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
34%

Stari Grad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stari Grad vs Tisa Adorjan

Tisa Adorjan beat Stari Grad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište OFK Stari Grad in Bačka Palanka.