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Stargard Szczeciński vs Gedania Gdansk — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gedania Gdansk
Gedania Gdansk
11/4/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński46%
×Draw23%
Gedania Gdansk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stargard Szczeciński
1.85
Gedania Gdansk
1.51

Stargard Szczeciński creates 23% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 50 away

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.80
Gedania Gdansk
1.56

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.46
Gedania Gdansk
1.90

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par
Gedania Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Gedania Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw
68%
Stargard Szczeciński or Gedania Gdansk
77%
Draw or Gedania Gdansk
54%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
25%
Gedania Gdansk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
84%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
55%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
28%
Gedania Gdansk 1+ goals
78%
Gedania Gdansk 2+ goals
44%
Gedania Gdansk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
59%
Gedania Gdansk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 85 matches

Gedania Gdansk away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.90 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Gedania Gdansk defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Gedania Gdansk attack 1.56 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more
46%
level
23%
Gedania Gdansk scores more
32%

Stargard Szczeciński at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stargard Szczeciński vs Gedania Gdansk

Gedania Gdansk beat Stargard Szczeciński 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Stargard Szczeciński.