Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stargard Szczeciński vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
6/5/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 37Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński35%
×Draw25%
Garbarnia Kraków39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stargard Szczeciński
1.35
Garbarnia Kraków
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.24
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński
1.57
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw
61%
Stargard Szczeciński or Garbarnia Kraków
75%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
65%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
16%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
74%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
39%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
15%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
76%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
42%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
48%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.24 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more
35%
level
25%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
39%

Garbarnia Kraków at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stargard Szczeciński 0–0 Garbarnia Kraków

Stargard Szczeciński and Garbarnia Kraków drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Stargard Szczeciński.