Stargard Szczeciński 4–2 Cartusia Kartuzy

Stargard Szczeciński

FT

4 – 2

Cartusia Kartuzy

3/23/2024

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński46%

×Draw23%

Cartusia Kartuzy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stargard SzczecińskiExpected goals in this matchCartusia Kartuzy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.38

Stargard Szczeciński

1.73

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.38

Stargard Szczeciński creates 25% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 59 away

1.80

creates per match

1.29

1.46

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński

1.80

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.29

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński

1.46

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Cartusia Kartuzy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw

69%

Stargard Szczeciński or Cartusia Kartuzy

77%

Draw or Cartusia Kartuzy

54%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+

24%

Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals

82%

Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals

52%

Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals

25%

Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals

75%

Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals

40%

Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)

60%

Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 85 matches

Cartusia Kartuzy away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.66 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 1.29 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more

46%

level

23%

Cartusia Kartuzy scores more

31%

Stargard Szczeciński at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff