Stargard Szczeciński 1–4 Bytovia Bytów

Stargard Szczeciński

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Bytovia Bytów

D. Polkowski 52'

J. Ryś 85'

P. Giel 80', 74'

K. Bąk 71'

9/19/2020

II Liga - East · Round 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński42%

×Draw25%

Bytovia Bytów34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stargard SzczecińskiExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.37

Stargard Szczeciński

1.55

Bytovia Bytów

1.37

Stargard Szczeciński creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

1.24

creates per match

1.17

1.57

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński

1.24

Bytovia Bytów

1.17

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński

1.57

Bytovia Bytów

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw

66%

Stargard Szczeciński or Bytovia Bytów

75%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

58%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+

21%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals

79%

Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals

46%

Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals

20%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

75%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

40%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)

55%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.24 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more

42%

level

25%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

34%

Stargard Szczeciński at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Theus← B. Klimek

52'

D. Polkowski

60'

F. Dymerski← K. Lizakowski

71'

K. Bąk

72'

M. Rajch← D. Polkowski

74'

P. Giel

78'

J. Ryś← J. Bach

80'

T. Kaczmarek← O. Ryk

80'

P. Giel

85'

J. Ryś

88'

O. Sikorski← A. Bielawski

88'

Ł. Wasiak← P. Giel

88'

A. Szmidke← K. Sezonienko

Stargard

Bytovia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Topolski

46'▲A. Theus←▼B. Klimek

72'▲M. Rajch←▼D. Polkowski

80'▲T. Kaczmarek←▼O. Ryk

Stargard Szczeciński substitutes

TheusRajchKaczmarek

Manager: A. Stawski

60'▲F. Dymerski←▼K. Lizakowski

78'▲J. Ryś←▼J. Bach

88'▲O. Sikorski←▼A. Bielawski

88'▲Ł. Wasiak←▼P. Giel

88'▲A. Szmidke←▼K. Sezonienko

Bytovia Bytów substitutes

DymerskiRyśSikorskiWasiakSzmidke

II Liga - East: Stargard Szczeciński 1–4 Bytovia Bytów

Bytovia Bytów beat Stargard Szczeciński 4-1 in II Liga - East on September 19, 2020.

Goals: D. Polkowski (52'), K. Bąk (71'), P. Giel (74', 80'), J. Ryś (85').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Stargard Szczeciński.

Stargard Szczeciński vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Stargard Szczeciński 1–4 Bytovia Bytów