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Stará Říše vs Žďár nad Sázavou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Stará Říše
Stará Říše
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
5/11/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 25Stadion FSC Stará Říše

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stará Říše40%
×Draw22%
Žďár nad Sázavou38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Říše
1.85
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 84 away

creates per match

Stará Říše
1.80
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.54

allows per match

Stará Říše
2.06
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.90

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par
Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Žďár nad Sázavou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw
62%
Stará Říše or Žďár nad Sázavou
78%
Draw or Žďár nad Sázavou
60%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+
21%
Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals
84%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
55%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
28%
Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
83%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
54%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)
51%
Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Žďár nad Sázavou away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.54 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stará Říše scores more
40%
level
22%
Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
38%

Stará Říše at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stará Říše will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stará Říše vs Žďár nad Sázavou

Stará Říše and Žďár nad Sázavou drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FSC Stará Říše in Stará Říše.