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Stará Říše vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Stará Říše
Stará Říše
PST
14:30
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
5/3/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 21Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stará Říše30%
×Draw22%
Vysočina Jihlava II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Říše
1.56
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.03

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 19 away

creates per match

Stará Říše
1.80
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Stará Říše
2.06
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw
51%
Stará Říše or Vysočina Jihlava II
78%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
70%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+
14%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals
79%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
46%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
21%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
87%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
60%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)
38%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stará Říše scores more
30%
level
22%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
49%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stará Říše host Vysočina Jihlava II

May 3, 2020: Stará Říše take on Vysočina Jihlava II in 4. liga - Divizie D. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stará Říše host Vysočina Jihlava II at Stadion FSC Stará Říše (Stará Říše).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.