Stará Říše 0–4 Líšeň II: Result & Stats

Stará Říše

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Líšeň II

9/10/2023

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 6Stadion FSC Stará Říše

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stará Říše29%

×Draw22%

Líšeň II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stará ŘíšeExpected goals in this matchLíšeň II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.04

Stará Říše

1.52

Líšeň II

2.04

Líšeň II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

1.80

creates per match

2.02

2.06

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Stará Říše

1.80

Líšeň II

2.02

allows per match

Stará Říše

2.06

Líšeň II

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par

Líšeň II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Líšeň II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw

50%

Stará Říše or Líšeň II

78%

Draw or Líšeň II

71%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+

13%

Líšeň II wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals

78%

Stará Říše 2+ goals

45%

Stará Říše 3+ goals

20%

Líšeň II 1+ goals

87%

Líšeň II 2+ goals

60%

Líšeň II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)

37%

Líšeň II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Líšeň II away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Líšeň II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Líšeň II attack 2.02 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stará Říše scores more

29%

level

22%

Líšeň II scores more

50%

Líšeň II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Líšeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff