Stará Říše 1–2 Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Stará Říše

FT

1 – 2

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

9/5/2021

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 6Stadion FSC Stará Říše

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stará Říše51%

×Draw21%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stará ŘíšeExpected goals in this matchBystřice nad Pernštejnem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.63

Stará Říše

2.21

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.63

Stará Říše creates 36% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 37 away

1.80

creates per match

1.19

2.06

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Stará Říše

1.80

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.19

allows per match

Stará Říše

2.06

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw

71%

Stará Říše or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

79%

Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

49%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+

30%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals

89%

Stará Říše 2+ goals

65%

Stará Říše 3+ goals

38%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals

80%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals

48%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)

64%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.21

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stará Říše scores more

51%

level

21%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more

29%

Stará Říše at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stará Říše will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff